Can This Black Box See Into the Future?

[Laisrean]

http://www.redorbit.com/news/display/?id=126649#121


The machine apparently sensed the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Centre four hours before they happened - but in the fevered mood of conspiracy theories of the time, the claims were swiftly knocked back by sceptics. But last December, it also appeared to forewarn of the Asian tsunami just before the deep sea earthquake that precipitated the epic tragedy.

Now, even the doubters are acknowledging that here is a small box with apparently inexplicable powers..

Didn't Nostradamus use something similar? Hmm.

[Starlight*Rains]

WOW!!! Hell of a machine! Thanks for sharing!

[bbnflpn]

thats neat,

i didnt read the whole thing cause i need to go soon, so i might have missed it what does the machine do exactly that lets people know other than go wild. what does it say to indicate that it knows the event is gonna happen is it spacific or does it just have a higher output of random data.

[Mindflayer]

While it's pretty interesting, I just can't put faith into a computer's random number generator, for one reason:


computers CAN'T do random...at all. Not even only using 2 numbers.

The generators are based off an algorythm that -fakes- random. Eventually however they whole thing will repeat. You will get the EXACT same sequence of numbers you got before. It may take many years, and the number may be a billions of digits long, but it WILL repeat.


I would be FAR more convinced if the machine actually said that the event were gonna happen, so until it spits out "5000 people are gonna die" in binary... I'll stay skeptical =\

[Trithemius]

I have to agree with Mindflayer. In addition, the fact that they're getting spikes of all "heads" or all "tails" in a supposedly totally random process and equating them with major events tells me they're reading way too much into their results. There's absolutely no reason why these spikes shouldn't be expected. In fact, it would be suspicious if they weren't getting these fluctuations.

[angle kitsune]

computers don't do random things,but this box dosen't seem to be a computer...if all the thing does is spit out the same amount 1s and 0s and thats all it can do then it still does that then I say yah there could be something to that,but it could also be just reading to deep into it. I agree with Mindflayer all the way. tell it starts saying whats going to happen and when it is going to happen I am not going to say 100% if its real or not. however it would be nice to know why I feel like I have done something befor or read a new posting befor...

[Mindflayer]

computers don't do random things,but this box dosen't seem to be a computer...if all the thing does is spit out the same amount 1s and 0s and thats all it can do then it still does that then I say yah there could be something to that,but it could also be just reading to deep into it. I agree with Mindflayer all the way. tell it starts saying whats going to happen and when it is going to happen I am not going to say 100% if its real or not. however it would be nice to know why I feel like I have done something befor or read a new posting befor...
It is a computer, just a very simple one.

It's probably just a simple processor, not any more complex than a calculator that's be programmed with an algorythm to generate 1's and 0's.

Basically, the instructions say this: (except in code)

Generate a whole number between 0 and 1 based on an algythm that's been seeded with a different number.
Print that number


Now normally, you would have a bigger range, say between 0 and 1000, then the computer would generate a number in that range and print it, so you would end up with an output like:

994, 23, 128, 463, 592, 610, 2, 99

That's all it's doing, however, the range is so small that the only 2 numbers is can print out is either a 0 or 1.

Again though, computers can do random, you have to "seed" the algorythm with another number, which is what determines that pattern. Now usually this is based on an ever changing number, a popular one is the amount of seconds that has passed since a given date (usually the day that first computer was made, it's a kind of industry standard)

Now, this DOES help mix up the pattern a bit, because the pattern keeps changing... but there's still a pattern, and even with this, it WILL eventually repeat.

[maphdet]

Magic IS a science, one day I believe that this will be proven.

*waits patiently for a stargate*

:spaceman:

[Tadrith]

A few sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_seed

So while these periods of spikes and troughs will repeat themselves, it would be interesting to see if they still match up with worldly events.

It also has my curiosity that reputable mathematicians and physicists are paying this thing some good heed; this is their specialty afterall and they know more about it than we do. Perhaps there is something we are missing?

Tad

[ValD]

Ah yes, the good old Global Conciousness Project (http://noosphere.princeton.edu/).
It basically analyses random-number output from a network of computers. The project workers then compare the output to known world events. The hypothesis is that, somehow, big historical events cause large-scale fluctuations in the output.
So it cannot predict the future - the fluctuations are assigned to events after they have happened. And what the researchers regard as an historical event is very much a subjective judgement. According to their own results table (http://noosphere.princeton.edu/results.html), their interpretation of "historical" encompass things like the Miss World Contest, Pierre Trudeau's funeral, the Oscar ceremonies, various Harmonic Concordance-type events, "Oprah Winfrey in Africa", "McGwire, record homerun" (?), ""Peace at Last", Headlines" (?), "Roll Your Own Blackout"(?), "Siyum Daf Yomi" (?), "US TV: Survivors Finale", the death of "Bob Morris" (who?) and other such memorable earth-shaking stuff.

[Infinite Grey]

While it's pretty interesting, I just can't put faith into a computer's random number generator, for one reason:


computers CAN'T do random...at all. Not even only using 2 numbers.

The generators are based off an algorythm that -fakes- random. Eventually however they whole thing will repeat. You will get the EXACT same sequence of numbers you got before. It may take many years, and the number may be a billions of digits long, but it WILL repeat.


Mindflayer is dead on there... but what I would be interested in seeing is if one could map the entire pattern, and its correspondence with global events... and then map it backwards to see if the pattern corresponds with past events.... just a thought.

[MysticWitch]

How do you get something from nothing? How do you get perdictions from microchips when you are not telling it to give you that information. I dont understand how this would be possible unless the aliens are behind this mystery :hahugh:

[Sev]

While it's pretty interesting, I just can't put faith into a computer's random number generator, for one reason:


computers CAN'T do random...at all. Not even only using 2 numbers.

The generators are based off an algorythm that -fakes- random.


That is indeed true of most computer-based random-number generation, but in this case they're using a hardware generation method. No algorythm is used to generate the random numbers -- instead, the source is an electronic noise source, which is, for all intents and purposes, truly random.

[ValD]

Mindflayer is dead on there... but what I would be interested in seeing is if one could map the entire pattern, and its correspondence with global events... and then map it backwards to see if the pattern corresponds with past events.... just a thought.
That's precisely what they're doing - assigning past events - events that they consider to be important - to spikes in the pattern. No prediction involved.

[Infinite Grey]

That's precisely what they're doing - assigning past events - events that they consider to be important - to spikes in the pattern. No prediction involved.

Not quite what I meant. Though they may be a little enthusiastic with the results, the observations seem to indicate a variation spike during global events. This isn't even taking in account the supposed fortune telling abilities of the pattern. IF the entire pattern could be mapped, and the major spokes connected to major global events, then one could map the spikes backwards in time to see if they align with other past major global events. This would indicate that history doesn't so much as repeat its self, but runs on a pattern of events. The events themselves being irrelevant, the important thing is that something happened within a certain scope of sensationalism. IF this could be ascertained, it would create a model to which future event could be predicted.

But it would prove anything really, it all very post hoc... it would just be interesting to see.

[ValD]

Not quite what I meant. Though they may be a little enthusiastic with the results, the observations seem to indicate a variation spike during global events<snip>
But it would prove anything really, it all very post hoc... it would just be interesting to see.It all depends on what peole interpret as a "global event" - in one of my previous posts on this thread, I listed quite a number of events that the Project has correlated with spikes, events that have no meaning for a large part of the world ("Oprah Winfrey in Africa" etc.)
As you say, it's all post hoc. And even if they could successfully correlate a particular type of spiking with a particulat type of event (and they don't seem to have so far - look at the hugely differing data for earthquakes, for example), they can't predict the spiking in advance! Perhaps they could see if there are any correlatory spikings in advance of particular types of spikings...?

[Mindflayer]

That is indeed true of most computer-based random-number generation, but in this case they're using a hardware generation method. No algorythm is used to generate the random numbers -- instead, the source is an electronic noise source, which is, for all intents and purposes, truly random.

Actually... not really ;)

It depends on what's creating the noise. Any sort of machine, will not be truley random :)

[Mishka]

Didn't the mice make one in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy or subsequent book?

_inabox_

I'll go stand in the corner now for giving cheek.