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| Environmental & Scientific Issues Energy & environmental conservation, global warming, cloning, stem cells, medical research and other environmental and science issues pertaining to political interests. |
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#61
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And my point is, if you look at the scientific literature instead of denialist blogs and nitwit journalist's opinions, you'll know scientists have a very idea of what is going on.
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For reasons beyond my control, catch me on the league of reason forum for any conversation of substance. |
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#62
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Asking an honest question is "pulling" something?
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http://www.livescience.com/environme...s_warming.html Hey, look at that. Scientists disagreeing. Quote:
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Where did most of this scientific literature come from? The IPCC? The ones who get most of their information from the organization producing these questionable emails?
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"I would rather make the gravest of mistakes than surrender my own judgement." -- Cora Munroe in Last of the Mohicans "Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing." -- Conan the Barbarian in "Tower of the Elephant" by Robert E. Howard "Moral outrage has little effect on a cat." -- Garrison Keillor "There aren't many problems than can't be fixed with $700 and a .30-06." -- Jeff Cooper. Or maybe it was his daughter Lindy. I can't remember. |
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#63
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Because past CO2 levels to climate temperature have been comprehensively covered in the scientific literature, all you would have to do look it up. But instead, you visit skeptic blogs who peddle in misinformation.
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There is various potential reasons for other planets to be warming... else you believe they should fall in line with Earth too? (I can't go into details right now, but I will) Quote:
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For reasons beyond my control, catch me on the league of reason forum for any conversation of substance. |
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#64
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My last post is a little weak because I'm in hurry to do more important things... but I will say this before bugger off.
Valnorran, debating you is frustrating. Not because you present challenging questions, but because you ask really really basic questions - you seem to be ignorant of things you should have learned in junior high. In debating you, one is forced not only to be an opponent, but also a high school science teacher... hand walking you through the basic concepts before we can reach the crux of the conversation. Unfortunately, after a mere half a dozen posts, you've discarded what has already been covered and return to tired all misinformed arguments as if the debunking never happened. How do I know this? Because of fundamentally ignorant statement/questions like this one Quote:
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For reasons beyond my control, catch me on the league of reason forum for any conversation of substance. |
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#65
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There are really not as many questions as you would like to think. Unless you mean questions by people who are abjectly unqualified to ask. Not every opinion is of equal value. Iggy is right, you do not ask the questions of a dissenting scientist... you ask the questions of an ideologue.
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God is an underachiever. ![]() Last edited by Thunder; December 20th, 2009 at 08:06 PM. |
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#66
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#67
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*facepalm* |
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#68
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2. I'm asking questions in an effort to get people to explain their positions and try to understand what's happening. If that makes me an idealogue, oh well.
__________________
"I would rather make the gravest of mistakes than surrender my own judgement." -- Cora Munroe in Last of the Mohicans "Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing." -- Conan the Barbarian in "Tower of the Elephant" by Robert E. Howard "Moral outrage has little effect on a cat." -- Garrison Keillor "There aren't many problems than can't be fixed with $700 and a .30-06." -- Jeff Cooper. Or maybe it was his daughter Lindy. I can't remember. Last edited by Valnorran; December 21st, 2009 at 02:39 PM. |
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#69
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Now, here is my take on the whole global warming issue. This is from the perspective of a laymen whose scholarly training lies in a different field than science.
As I go about my life, I am presented with the issue of global warming. On the one hand, it could spell the end of humanity (although as time goes on, I'm less and less certain that's a bad thing ). On the other hand, it might not be happening, or if it is it might be something completely out of our control. In that case attempting to stop it will probably only cause more problems. So... what to do? My natural impulse is to try and understand what's going on. Towards that end, I try to notice things and ask a lot of questions. So here is a hodge podge of questions, things I've noticed, and thoughts that crossed my mind.As far as I can tell, serious study of global climate change has only been going on for about forty years or so. That's a pretty short lifespan compared to most other sciences, and I think it's also a pretty short period of time to try and understand something as complex as the entire world's climate. To me this relative lack of experience means the odds of them having all of this so perfectly figured out are pretty slim. I don't think we've been studying global climate change long enough to really be aware of what we don't know. We can rule out certain possible causes for warming, but for all we know there are factors at work about which we are totally ignorant. Climate has always changed, sometimes quite radically, so what about the current change? Some say its rapidity proves human causes, but how can we be so sure? How do we know its rapidity isn't natural and it just happened to occur while we were here to witness it? Given the short span of time we've been studying this complex phenomenon and the vast amount of time the climate has existed, how can we be so sure it isn't the result of some unknown factor? If the planet as a whole is warming, why are Baltimore and Washington, D.C. currently expriencing record high snowfalls? My own region normally sees snow once every seven or eight years, yet the last two years set new records for early snowfalls. Several regions have experienced record cold winters in the last ten years. Fom 1930 to 2000, Pasadena, CA, Berkley, CA, Death Valley, CA, and New York City have experienced an increase in temperature. In that same period, McGill, NV, Guthrie, OK, Boulder, CO, Truman, MO, Greenville, SC, Ann Arbor, MI, Syracuse, NY, Albany, NY, and Oswego, NY all experienced a decrease in temperature. Albany and New York City are only a hundred miles apart. West Point, NY, lies between them, but from 1826 to 200 their temperatures remained stable. Alice Springs, Australia, has had stable temperatures from 1879 to 2003. Clyde, NWT has experience cooling from 1943 to 2004. Christchurch, NZ has experienced warming from 1864 to 2003. So has Kamenskoe, Siberia from 1949 to 1998, as well as Rome from 1811 to 1989. Paris has cooled from 1757 to 1995. So has Stuttgart from 1792 to 1999 and Navacerrada, Spain from 1941 to 2004. In Japan, Choshi has warmed from 1887 to 2004, Tokyo warmed from 1876 to 2004, and Takayama has warmed from 1900 to 1990. Lahore City, Pakistan has warmed from 1876 to 2003. The records naturally have years of varying warming or cooling, but once graphed they show a general trend - warming, cooling, or stable. And CO2 has increased worldwide. So if the warming is global and CO2 is the main culprit, why the divergence among these regions? Melting glaciers is another one. We always hear about how the world's glaciers are melting, but here's the thing. Of the 67,000 or so glaciers, only a few have been studied with care, and only 79 have mass balance data going back five years or more. On that limited knowledge base, we cannot say "the world's glaciers are melting" because we don't know. Rising sea levels is another. Sea levels have been rising for the last 6000 years. They rise about four to eight inches every hundred years or so. To top it all off, computer models are offered up as proof when the best they can do is predict. A prediction - something that hasn't happened yet - cannot, by definition, be proof. Based on things like this, I think there's room for asking questions. Another big argument is that even if global warming isn't a problem we should do something. My first objection to this argument is that is assumes we can control the climate. The second problem is that if we took measures the benevolent scientists would not be the ones calling the shots. Politicians would. How can anyone expect politicians to manage the climate when they cannot manage their own finances or personal lives? My personal belief is that controling a system as complex as a planet's climate is not humanly possible, but even if it is do we honestly want it to be a government operation? As this layman watches things unfold, he begins to think there is no way to really understand what's going on because the topic has just gotten too politicized. Supporters accuse deniers of having an agenda, but don't the supporters, the ones calling for drastic changes, also have an agenda? Of course they do. Everyone does. To dismiss one group's findings because someone is paying them is silly. Everyone's salaries are paid by someone, and environmental groups are no different. If the environment is saved, they can kiss those donations good-bye and start looking for real jobs. They say researchers working for corporations have a vested interest in ignoring global warming, but they have a vested interest in making sure their pet problem is never solved. They are no purer than the corporate shills they so despise. It's hard to take the global warming thing seriously when I see who is on board with it. Scientists? Sure, but also flaming hypocrites like Al Gore, corrupt organizations like the UN, and slobbering nutjobs like environmental extremists who are famous for making huge doomsday prophecies that never come true. When people like this are sold on an idea, I can't help questioning that idea's credibility. Given the short span of time we've been studying this complex phenomenon, how can we be so sure it isn't the result of some unknown factor? How do we know it isn't just coincidence that this warming takes place during our tenure? The whole thing smells to me of human arrogance. It reminds me of a small child who happens to clap his hands right before it rains and becomes totally convinced he controls the weather. We can't handle the idea that nature does what it does without regard for our input or convenience. We seem to want things to stay the same, something in direct opposition to natural law. Even if the current climate change is normal we want to stop it. It just looks to me like we, like the child who clapped his hands before it rained, noticed a warming trend - a very brief one, in terms of the planet's life - saw some things that linked it to us and instantly concluded its our fault, never considering that things often just happen and there isn't a hell of a lot we can do about it. This issue has generated a lot of hystrics, panic and strife. It has even taken on a quasi-religious aspect: there are fearful predictions, end-of-the-world scenarios, don't ask questions, just shut up and obey, anyone who questions will not be tolerated. Politics got thrown into the mix and the result of this neurotic mishmash, I fear, will render any honest attempts at resolution impossible. That's how this issue looks to me. I'm trying to make sense of it as best I can, an effort that seems to irritate a lot of global warming supporters. I find this - getting angry for someone asking questions in an attempt to understand something - particularly odd considering their professed love for science. You'd think they would welcome such a thing. It creates the impression that I'm just supposed to shut up and obey, which creates the impression that if they don't want to explain their position perhaps it's because they aren't totally convinced their position is the correct one, which creates the impression they have something to hide, and that just opens a whole new batch of questions and the cycle starts over again. That is the result of these emails, and it probably never would have happened if the issue wasn't so politicized. I suspect politics has hopelessly contaminated this topic.
__________________
"I would rather make the gravest of mistakes than surrender my own judgement." -- Cora Munroe in Last of the Mohicans "Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing." -- Conan the Barbarian in "Tower of the Elephant" by Robert E. Howard "Moral outrage has little effect on a cat." -- Garrison Keillor "There aren't many problems than can't be fixed with $700 and a .30-06." -- Jeff Cooper. Or maybe it was his daughter Lindy. I can't remember. Last edited by Valnorran; December 21st, 2009 at 02:48 PM. |
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#70
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A mature field does not equate to "knowing everything there is to know about a that field", indeed if scientist knew everything, there would be no science. By its very definition science is the study of the natural world. Now, while there is a period of time for a field to mature, meaning the establishment of a comprehensive set of core theorem and laws, this period is in no means the same for any two fields. Usually it's within a generation of scientists that the core theorems and laws are formed; oh they get added and altered as time progresses - Natural selection replaced Transmutation of species, General and Special Relativity replace Newtonian gravity (though it is still used for localized calculations), Big Bang replaced the Stable Universe Model, and so on. It's nature of science. Most of the products of science you take for granted, are new and even still in their infancies. If you want to get technical, Climatology -- as in the study of climate, scientifically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time -- is nearly a thousand years old. The first climatologist on record was a medieval Chinese scientist Shen Kuo. But in the end, the age of a scientific field is irrelevant. The study of global climate destabilization draws on a range of scientific and mathematical fields, including Meteorology, atmospheric Chemistry, Atmospheric Physics, Aeronomy, Atmospheric Dynamics, Agroecology, environmental archaeology, oceanography, geology, volcanology, Biogeochemistry, Biomonitoring, Aviation meteorology, Hydrometeorology, Nuclear meteorology, Maritime meteorology, Thermodynamics, statistical thermodynamics, Biophysics, Econophysics, Agrophysics , Astrophysics, Relativistic electromagnetism, Chemical thermodynamics, Acoustic theory, Aerodynamics, Aeroelasticity, Aeronautics, Computational fluid dynamics, Flow measurement, Hemodynamics, Hydraulics, Hydrology, Hydrostatics, Electrohydrodynamics, Magnetohydrodynamics, Rheology, Quantum hydrodynamics, planetary astronomy, planetary geology (together with geochemistry and geophysics), physical geography (geomorphology and cartography as applied to planets), atmospheric science, theoretical planetary science, and the study of extrasolar planets. ... and many more. Most of these fields have emerged within the the last century and you trust most of them implicatively without even knowing it - that's part of a modern life, taking things for granted unless it directly and publicly flies in the face of one's beliefs. Quote:
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![]() Ice cores provide evidence for variation in greenhouse gas per-industrial. Quote:
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Honestly, the causes of climate change a pretty well known - based on the study of the past and present. There are some mysteries, but know of those specific mysterious apply to our current situations anyway. Quote:
As the planet warms rapidly, weather patterns become increasingly unstable - this includes localized cold spikes, blizzards, super freezing and so on. It is all covered in the scientific literature. Point being here, is you do not seem to know the difference between long-term trends and short-term fluctuations Here is a graphic monitoring the snow fall within the northern hemisphere. ![]() Warmer temperature tends to melt snow, but also causes more water vapor in the air, so there’s more possibility of snow. And as long as it’s still cold enough to snow (which it still is during winter), we shouldn’t be surprised by no change in snow cover. But the rapid decline of springtime snow cover over the last four decades, and the even more rapid decline of summer snow cover, show the mark of global warming unambiguously. Quote:
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The world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s. Initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps, this compilation has resulted in a detailed inventory of more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2. http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/ For practical reasons they concentrate their efforts on a selection of glaciers, but that isn't to say that other glaciers go unattended. They are monitored via satellites, aerial fly bys and local observations. Quote:
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[quote]The whole thing smells to me of human arrogance. [/It reminds me of a small child who happens to clap his hands right before it rains and becomes totally convinced he controls the weather. We can't handle the idea that nature does what it does without regard for our input or convenience. [quote] More arguments from personal incredulity. Quote:
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2> If you were honest in your questions, people would be more likely to answer your questions. Quote:
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__________________
For reasons beyond my control, catch me on the league of reason forum for any conversation of substance. |
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